Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

87 0x871b…9c78 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$371 (-16%) realized −$372 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$101per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$11

7 days−$356

14 days−$367

30 days−$367

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-36.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-30.5%	-37.1%	42%	26%	-24.3%
≤30d	20	-32.4%	-38.8%	40%	25%	-24.6%
≤90d	20	-32.4%	-38.8%	40%	25%	-24.6%
all	22	-29.4%	-36.2%	41%	23%	-24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.2%	23%	-24.4%
10%	-42.3%	18%	-31.6%
15%	-47.8%	14%	-38.2%
20%	-53.0%	9%	-44.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

44% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -42% → late -17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$52 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.45 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized−$372

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage196d

Avg bet$101

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	69¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$151	+$99	+65%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$100	−$58	-58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$86	+$36	+42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$101	+$55	+55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$60	+$5	+8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$174	−$115	-66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$261	+$60	+23%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$51	−$31	-61%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$137	+$9	+6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	−$99	-99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$205	−$106	-52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$103	−$86	-84%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$391	+$33	+8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$152	−$108	-71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$16	−$11	-69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$20	−$15	-72%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$35	+$5	+15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$26	−$19	-71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$15	−$10	-68%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	Jan 24	$31	$0	-2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	Jan 24	$5	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$250	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	85¢	$100	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	36¢	$42	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	37¢	$51	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$105	5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	19¢	$20	5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	18¢	$17	5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$156	5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$101	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$66	11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$65	22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	91¢	$60	22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$58	22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$71	24h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$176	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	88¢	$59	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL Yes	9¢	$20	2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	73¢	$145	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$146	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	93¢	$137	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	73¢	$101	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$7	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.71 · official $100.72 (match) · 65 history records