Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x871c…c1b4 world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%28W / 50L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$8
politics 27% +$8
other 14% −$2
sports 11% +$2
finance 3% +$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.3% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 42 +1.8% -7.9% 40% 5% -9.2%
all 78 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses28 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage300d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $209 +$4 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $109 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $250 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $128 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $67 −$3 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $62 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$5 +19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $70 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $61 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $92 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $101 −$5 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $62 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $97 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $56 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $113 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $112 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $94 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $59 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $119 −$6 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $24 +$13 +54%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $107 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $159 −$1 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $114 +$9 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 23 $39 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $626 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 21 $34 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 14 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $88 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $80 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $85 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $104 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $40 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $62 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $101 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $93 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $81 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.57 · official $31.56 (match) · 303 history records