Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8720…b4f2 other 24 markets active 3h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$96 (+10%) realized +$57 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$40
crypto 23% −$15
sports 22% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 11 -43.8% -49.2% 36% 36% -61.7%
all 21 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 52% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 52% -5.1%
10% -21.7% 52% -14.2%
15% -29.2% 48% -22.5%
20% -36.2% 43% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$327
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage115d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $140 $182 +$42 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $115 $132 +$17 (+15%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $32 $13 −$19 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $39 −$39 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $40 +$29 +72%
Basquet Girona vs. Real Madrid Mar 29 $17 +$5 +27%
Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5 Mar 29 $11 +$7 +70%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $12 +$6 +49%
Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 27.5 Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5 Feb 28 $45 +$35 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $44 +$39 +88%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $20 +$23 +112%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 Feb 24 $54 +$39 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 23 $42 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3AM ET Feb 23 $40 −$2 -4%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Feb 23 $38 +$26 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2AM ET Feb 22 $46 +$38 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $67 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $105 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $118 6d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 24d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 29¢ $34 25d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 69d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 70d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 76d
Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5 BUY Yes 59¢ $11 80d
Basquet Girona vs. Real Madrid BUY Real Madrid 79¢ $17 81d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 67¢ $12 81d
Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes $5 81d
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 88d
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5 SELL Yes 100¢ $80 109d
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $45 109d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 111d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $44 111d
Thunder vs. Raptors SELL Thunder 100¢ $43 112d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 44¢ $10 112d
Thunder vs. Raptors BUY Thunder 47¢ $20 112d
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 113d
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 113d
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 113d
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 113d
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 113d
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 113d
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 113d
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.05 · official $327.73 (match) · 72 history records