Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8721…78f5 crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (857 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,451 (+23%) realized +$14,426 · open −$975
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%42W / 33L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$766per market
Trades / day856.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,496
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (857 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 55% -9.8%
≤30d 75 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 55% -9.8%
≤90d 75 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 55% -9.8%
all 75 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 55% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover856.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 55% -9.8%
10% -14.3% 52% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 48% -26.3%
20% -30.2% 47% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,050) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
37.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$552 vs −$748 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$525
Realized+$14,426
Unrealized−$975
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses42 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$766
Trades / day856.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 50¢ 18¢ $1,500 $525 −$975 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,627 +$1,687 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $2,425 −$2,425 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,712 −$1,667 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $354 +$241 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $167 −$85 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $64 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$5 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $520 +$480 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $503 +$52 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $504 +$61 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,211 +$335 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $570 −$542 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $848 +$829 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $110 +$98 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $500 −$102 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $845 −$845 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $273 +$210 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $563 +$634 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $969 +$1,123 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $600 +$400 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$790 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $722 −$722 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $805 −$805 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$601 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $671 +$671 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $694 +$558 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $993 +$939 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $783 −$783 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $826 −$826 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1,194 −$1,194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $418 +$682 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $945 +$724 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $349 −$343 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1,488 −$1,488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$30 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $88 +$61 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $464 +$364 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $500 −$421 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $330 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $500 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $420 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.00 · official $705.00 · 3500 history records