Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8721…5a7b crypto 852 markets active 9h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$639 (-9%) realized −$639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate53%451W / 400L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day91.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$40
14 days−$63
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$133
sports 20% −$64
other 2% −$33
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 22% -11.6%
≤30d 817 -7.2% -16.1% 53% 23% -12.2%
≤90d 851 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 23% -12.5%
all 851 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 23% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 23% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 17% -20.8%
15% -31.5% 14% -28.5%
20% -38.3% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses451 / 400
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)851 / 852
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day91.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $5 +$14 +276%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $5 +$3 +66%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $4 +$3 +79%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$50 +982%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 +$9 +250%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $10 +$11 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 4¢ $2 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 9h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 28¢ $3 9h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $3 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 9h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $5 9h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $5 9h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $5 9h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $5 9h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 16¢ $5 9h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 33h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 91¢ $5 33h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 33h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 77¢ $5 33h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 33h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 33h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 99¢ $10 35h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $10 35h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 35h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 9¢ $2 35h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 9¢ $3 35h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $2 35h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Qatar 2¢ $1 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 35h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 36h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 7¢ $3 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.61 · official $4.61 (match) · 3500 history records