Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8724…bfd3 crypto 112 markets active 3h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$23 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%39W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$293
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$183
crypto 36% −$181
other 22% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 33% -36.4%
≤30d 105 -18.3% -26.1% 37% 33% -14.9%
≤90d 105 -18.3% -26.1% 37% 33% -14.9%
all 105 -18.3% -26.1% 37% 33% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.1% 33% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 30% -23.1%
15% -39.6% 27% -30.5%
20% -45.5% 18% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses39 / 66
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 112
History coverage13d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 +$45 +134%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 +$13 +59%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 +$60 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$17 -67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$86 -85%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $56 −$33 -58%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$16 +502%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? AND Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 P BUY 5¢ $5 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $34 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 37¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 24¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.40 · official $64.40 · 344 history records