Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8725…eb10 sports 350 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (264 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$132,438 (-88%) realized −$132,117 · open −$321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%143W / 425L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day264.0pace
Fees−$1,997est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$20,692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$56,791
other 14% +$1,089
world 0% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (264 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 493 -58.2% -62.2% 15% 15% -45.0%
≤30d 568 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 25% -8.9%
≤90d 568 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 25% -8.9%
all 568 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 25% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 25% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 24% -17.7%
15% -53.0% 22% -25.6%
20% -57.6% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$466 vs −$152 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$20,692
Realized−$132,117
Unrealized−$321
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses143 / 425
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,997
Open positions82
Markets (closed)568 / 350
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$430
Trades / day264.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 82 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $2,077 $2,086 +$9 (+0%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 21¢ 22¢ $1,735 $1,795 +$59 (+3%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $1,310 $1,626 +$316 (+24%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 70¢ $1,379 $1,336 −$43 (-3%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,164 $1,171 +$7 (+1%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? No 73¢ 68¢ $1,166 $1,075 −$92 (-8%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 77¢ 70¢ $1,133 $1,039 −$93 (-8%)
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,005 $1,005 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $938 $956 +$17 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $704 $712 +$9 (+1%)
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 79¢ 77¢ $726 $704 −$22 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 82¢ $376 $639 +$263 (+70%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $478 $488 +$11 (+2%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $683 $460 −$223 (-33%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $387 $446 +$60 (+15%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $447 $417 −$30 (-7%)
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? No 52¢ 62¢ $355 $417 +$62 (+17%)
Will T1 make a roster change before July? No 96¢ 96¢ $324 $323 −$1 (-0%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? No 79¢ 66¢ $360 $303 −$57 (-16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $332 $277 −$55 (-17%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $237 $262 +$25 (+10%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 16¢ $248 $260 +$13 (+5%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $254 $249 −$5 (-2%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 55¢ $260 $221 −$39 (-15%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $172 $163 −$9 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 418 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders be the first team to reach 100 total po Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-09-17? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $723 −$723 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Valencia vs. BC Dubai Jun 18 $142 −$142 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pisa SC (-0.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: Xipto GC vs Karmine Corp GC (BO3) Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-26? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: JDG vs AL Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Chargers (-2.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $489 −$489 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-8.5) Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Lightning vs. Red Wings Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by September 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) Jun 18 $245 −$245 -100%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Club León FC (-0.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Air Force Falcons Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PVISION win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Blues vs. Sabres Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 18 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Map Handicap: Gen.G (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5) Jun 18 $267 −$267 -100%
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Panthers vs. Jaguars Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Jun 18 $613 −$613 -100%
Game Handicap: MVU (-1.5) vs Apex Mission Impossible (+1.5) Jun 18 $280 −$280 -100%
Hawks vs. Nets Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $29 10m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $2 19m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $30 19m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $138 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $159 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $41 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $47 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $19 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $9 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $9 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $8 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $12 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $61 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $17 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $68 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $48 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $62 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $62 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $24 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $57 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $133 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,691.95 · official $20,691.71 (match) · 3500 history records