Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8725…813d crypto 104 markets active 17h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$346 (-22%) realized −$346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%33W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day97.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$426
sports 3% +$7
other 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -30.8% -37.4% 32% 30% -38.0%
≤30d 103 -30.8% -37.4% 32% 30% -38.0%
≤90d 103 -30.8% -37.4% 32% 30% -38.0%
all 103 -30.8% -37.4% 32% 30% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.4% 30% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -43.4% 26% -43.9%
15% -48.8% 23% -49.3%
20% -53.9% 22% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses33 / 70
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day97.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$79 +446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$22 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $21 +$28 +137%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$22 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $97 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $37 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.62 · official $1.62 (match) · 597 history records