Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8725…bcac weather 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+16%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% −$22
sports 36% +$74
other 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.6% -6.3% 20% 20% +2.9%
≤30d 5 +3.6% -6.3% 20% 20% +2.9%
≤90d 5 +3.6% -6.3% 20% 20% +2.9%
all 5 +3.6% -6.3% 20% 20% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 20% +2.9%
10% -15.3% 20% -7.0%
15% -23.5% 20% -15.9%
20% -31.0% 20% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$6 · ×12.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? Jun 24 $21 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $72 −$8 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $91 −$13 -14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $133 +$74 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? SELL No 30¢ $6 1h
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 1h
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? BUY No 32¢ $6 1h
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 65¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 71¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 67¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 67¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 67¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 68¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 68¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 68¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records