Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8728…6ca7 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+24%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 163d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$80
other 11% −$16
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -19.7% -27.4% 42% 42% +15.4%
≤30d 12 -19.7% -27.4% 42% 42% +15.4%
≤90d 12 -19.7% -27.4% 42% 42% +15.4%
all 13 -18.3% -26.1% 38% 38% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 38% +14.2%
10% -33.2% 38% +3.3%
15% -39.6% 38% -6.7%
20% -45.6% 31% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$9 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage163d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$28 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$20 -92%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$37 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$34 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$17 +56%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 17 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $69 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $31 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 9h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9h
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 161d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records