Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x8729…dec4 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+9%) realized +$34 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.2% -25.1% 47% 47% -1.5%
≤30d 15 -17.2% -25.1% 47% 47% -1.5%
≤90d 15 -17.2% -25.1% 47% 47% -1.5%
all 15 -17.2% -25.1% 47% 47% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 47% -1.5%
10% -32.3% 47% -11.0%
15% -38.8% 47% -19.6%
20% -44.8% 33% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 47¢ 46¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $31 +$38 +124%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $42 +$27 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $16 +$13 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $33 +$17 +50%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $22 +$17 +76%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $14 +$15 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $50 +$21 +42%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $28 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $32 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $11 43h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $42 44h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $20 45h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $16 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $22 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $33 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $9 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $14 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $17 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $17 5d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $6 5d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $12 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $38 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $16 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $22 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.73 · official $57.73 (match) · 34 history records