Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x872a…d19b crypto 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%138W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$84
14 days+$57
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +3.4% -6.5% 67% 46% +1.8%
≤30d 234 -6.3% -15.3% 59% 46% -6.2%
≤90d 234 -6.3% -15.3% 59% 46% -6.2%
all 234 -6.3% -15.3% 59% 46% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 46% -6.2%
10% -23.4% 38% -15.2%
15% -30.8% 26% -23.3%
20% -37.6% 20% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses138 / 96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 546 history records