Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x872c…9ee0 crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+5%) realized +$99 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%36W / 28L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$1
crypto 44% +$85
other 5% +$15
sports 4% +$7
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 55% +18.2%
≤30d 11 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 55% +18.2%
≤90d 15 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 53% +10.9%
all 64 -3.8% -12.9% 56% 38% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 38% -3.0%
10% -21.3% 34% -12.3%
15% -28.9% 33% -20.7%
20% -35.9% 33% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses36 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage551d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 48¢ 22¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$21 +79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $10 +$15 +146%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$21 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$17 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$19 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Pl May 13 $11 +$2 +18%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva May 13 $12 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$13 +89%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$19 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$19 +97%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$13 +85%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$15 +97%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 24 be less than 2, Mar 05 $15 $0 +3%
AI Bubble Boom Parlay November Jan 22 $15 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 29 $13 +$4 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Nov 29 $110 +$110 +100%
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? Nov 26 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $47 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $37 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $43 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 43d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 43d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 43d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 43d
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Pl BUY ASTRAL 84¢ $11 56d
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 85¢ $12 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.72 · official $11.72 (match) · 174 history records