Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x872c…6db0 other 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,094 (+0%) realized +$1,094 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%28W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$1,498per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$22
14 days−$52
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$905
politics 38% −$122
sports 9% +$328
economics 3% −$11
culture 1% −$4
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$26
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 43 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 92 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 4% -8.8%
all 169 -3.4% -12.6% 17% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 9% -9.2%
10% -21.0% 9% -17.8%
15% -28.6% 9% -25.8%
20% -35.6% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,183) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$11 · ×8.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$1,094
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses28 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage161d
Avg bet$1,498
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $315 $315 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $421 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 22 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $5,159 −$7 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $2,194 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $4,060 −$6 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,938 −$6 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,113 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,311 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,398 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $2,730 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $885 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $242 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $6,415 −$7 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,640 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $6,917 −$7 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,970 −$5 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $779 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $2,451 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,830 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,455 −$7 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,403 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,105 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,245 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $399 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $907 +$2 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $686 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,952 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $4,472 −$6 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $936 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $53 +$25 +48%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,465 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $315 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $668 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $669 4h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $596 21h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $597 24h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $457 28h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $458 30h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $420 47h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $421 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $416 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $417 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $739 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $740 2d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $465 4d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $466 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $586 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $587 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $530 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $531 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $900 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $902 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $981 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $983 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $765 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $766 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,015 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $699 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $317 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $849 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $850 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.62 · official $314.62 (match) · 575 history records