Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x8731…2f9f crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$219 (+7%) realized +$246 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 37L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$197
14 days+$344
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$296
other 32% +$5
crypto 18% −$39
world 2% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +61.7% +46.3% 100% 100% +45.1%
≤30d 30 -1.7% -11.0% 57% 57% +5.6%
≤90d 61 -30.9% -37.4% 39% 38% -0.8%
all 61 -30.9% -37.4% 39% 38% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 38% -0.8%
10% -43.4% 36% -10.3%
15% -48.9% 31% -19.0%
20% -53.9% 25% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$22 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$514
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 37
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage76d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $160 $159 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 56¢ 56¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-71%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $124 +$54 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $159 +$143 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$74 +146%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $113 +$87 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $84 +$26 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $78 +$45 +58%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $87 +$93 +108%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 +$7 +25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $168 −$166 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$57 +134%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 23 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $163 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 41¢ $96 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 56¢ $152 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $124 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $101 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 61¢ $101 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 8d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $57 8d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $41 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 8d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $21 8d
Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 23¢ $20 8d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 8d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $51 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $11 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 10d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $113 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $81 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $41 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $16 11d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 11d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $44 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $513.77 · official $513.77 (match) · 113 history records