Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x8731…92ad other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$27 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$1
weather 28% +$1
crypto 25% $0
world 6% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +142.9% +119.7% 100% 50% +98.8%
≤90d 38 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 8% -8.5%
all 38 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 8% -8.5%
10% -16.7% 8% -17.3%
15% -24.8% 8% -25.3%
20% -32.2% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage57d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 34¢ 48¢ $34 $48 +$14 (+41%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-37%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes $8 $1 −$7 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $26 +$74 +286%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $17 −$17 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $23 −$22 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on May 22? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 22? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $23 +$77 +334%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on May 1 May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $15 +$67 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 12? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on May 12? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 12? May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? May 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 25°F or below on May 9? May 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 44°F or higher on May 9? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 7? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 7? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 05 $26 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $159 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 29 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 32d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 32d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 32d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 32d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $20 35d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 35d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 35d
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 35d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes $4 38d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 38d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 38d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on May 1 BUY Yes 100¢ $33 41d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 43d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $29 43d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $29 43d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $7 43d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 43d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 45d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $45 45d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.45 · official $80.60 (match) · 74 history records