Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8731…fe2d other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$206 (-2%) realized −$226 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate84%71W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$345
30 days+$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$235
other 39% −$10
sports 9% −$117
politics 5% −$17
world 4% −$400
tech 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 +11.5% +0.9% 100% 14% +12.5%
≤90d 27 -5.1% -14.2% 85% 15% -15.0%
all 85 -2.8% -12.0% 84% 31% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 31% -11.9%
10% -20.4% 16% -20.3%
15% -28.1% 8% -28.0%
20% -35.2% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$88 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses71 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage242d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $400 $458 +$58 (+14%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 60¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Yes 69¢ 42¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bernardo Silva: 1+ shots Jun 17 $57 +$1 +1%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
João Cancelo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 +$2 +11%
Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Rúben Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
João Félix: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Samu Costa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Cucurella: 2+ assists Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Aymeric Laporte: 2+ assists Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Willy Semedo: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Cucurella: 1+ assists Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Garry Rodrigues: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Pau Cubarsí: 2+ assists Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $207 +$314 +152%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $250 +$3 +1%
Ibrahim Mbaye: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $16 +$1 +6%
Lee Kang-in: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $38 +$2 +4%
Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $146 +$6 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 30 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 18 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $13 +$3 +24%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $13 +$6 +47%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $400 +$7 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $795 +$10 +1%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $150 +$95 +63%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 16 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Nansen launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 13 $873 +$26 +3%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $200 +$22 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 01 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 01 $150 +$7 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 01 $150 +$24 +16%
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $13 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $3 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $74 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ shots BUY No 99¢ $57 8d
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists BUY No 99¢ $50 8d
João Félix: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $15 9d
Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $40 9d
Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $50 9d
Rúben Neves: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $50 9d
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $20 9d
João Cancelo: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $17 9d
Samu Costa: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $100 9d
Willy Semedo: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $20 11d
Garry Rodrigues: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $20 11d
Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $45 11d
Aymeric Laporte: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $50 11d
Cucurella: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $50 11d
Cucurella: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $12 11d
Pau Cubarsí: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $200 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $250 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 38¢ $207 17d
Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 96¢ $146 27d
Lee Kang-in: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 96¢ $38 27d
Ibrahim Mbaye: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 94¢ $16 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $300 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.07 · official $700.07 (match) · 232 history records