Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
87 0x8735…5874 sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%64W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$69
other 39% −$51
world 4% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 154 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 40% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 40% -10.3%
10% -22.1% 39% -18.9%
15% -29.7% 33% -26.7%
20% -36.6% 29% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses64 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)154 / 158
History coverage178d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $12 $7 −$4 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $23 +$10 +45%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PSV vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? Jan 24 $5 +$4 +88%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $5 +$9 +190%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Wizards vs. Hornets Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $3 +$4 +142%
Will Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jan 24 $4 +$13 +334%
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 24 $14 −$5 -32%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 24 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-19? Jan 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 19 $20 +$6 +32%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $25 −$15 -62%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 12 $19 −$8 -44%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 12 $31 +$9 +30%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $34 +$28 +81%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-09? Jan 10 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $3 +$5 +150%
Will Cameroon vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jan 09 $8 −$4 -55%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 09 $2 $0 +3%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 09 $1 +$2 +170%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-08? Jan 09 $5 +$7 +138%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 08 $3 +$5 +178%
Magic vs. Nets Jan 08 $8 +$7 +85%
Bulls vs. Pistons Jan 08 $14 +$4 +28%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jan 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $3 +$3 +112%
Clippers vs. Knicks Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $1 $0 -3%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Wizards Jan 07 $3 +$7 +233%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Jan 07 $10 +$5 +54%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $15 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 38¢ $20 1h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 146d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 35¢ $10 146d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 146d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 146d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 146d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 146d
Will PSV vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 146d
Will PSV vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 146d
Will PSV vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 146d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 146d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 146d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 146d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 146d
Will PSV vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 146d
Wizards vs. Hornets BUY Wizards 7¢ $2 146d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 146d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 146d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 146d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 146d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 146d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 146d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 147d
Will Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 147d
Will Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 147d
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 147d
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.89 · official $123.03 · 278 history records