Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8735…db43 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,535 (-7%) realized −$1,781 · open −$754
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,255per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$472
7 days−$715
14 days−$3,192
30 days−$6,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$3,914
other 8% −$194
world 4% +$451
crypto 2% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 50% -22.3%
≤30d 15 -27.0% -33.9% 53% 47% -39.8%
≤90d 29 -25.8% -32.9% 52% 48% -16.4%
all 29 -25.8% -32.9% 52% 48% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 48% -16.4%
10% -39.3% 45% -24.4%
15% -45.2% 28% -31.7%
20% -50.6% 28% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,717) neutral
Persistence
early -25% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$645 vs −$888 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized−$1,781
Unrealized−$754
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1,255
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 24¢ $1,188 $435 −$754 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $729 +$472 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,026 −$1,020 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $642 +$366 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $233 −$225 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $329 −$323 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $912 +$310 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $742 +$171 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $469 −$464 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,482 −$2,477 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $3,157 −$3,120 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $1,826 −$1,653 -90%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang May 22 $3,101 +$333 +11%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $1,045 +$337 +32%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Ignacio Buse May 22 $2,005 +$147 +7%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 21 $2,995 +$1,702 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $1,735 −$1,717 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5,133 +$2,793 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $224 −$221 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $38 −$37 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $881 +$617 +70%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,418 +$451 +32%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $538 −$532 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $1,529 +$508 +33%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 15 $971 +$558 +58%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $641 +$331 +52%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 15 $355 −$352 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $269 −$265 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,200 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $729 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,026 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,007 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira $103 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $226 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,222 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $912 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $913 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $742 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $469 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $499 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $1,983 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $3,157 29d
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul SELL Alex de Minaur $173 29d
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $1,826 29d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang SELL Xiyu Wang 100¢ $3,434 29d
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $1,382 29d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang BUY Xiyu Wang 90¢ $3,101 29d
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik BUY Learner Tien 75¢ $1,045 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.59 · official $434.59 (match) · 56 history records