Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8738…222b sports 646 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,504 (+0%) realized +$2,451 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%340W / 299L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$1,671per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,007now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$11,044
other 14% −$5,872
world 0% −$2,405
crypto 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +188.7% +161.2% 100% 100% +161.2%
≤30d 1 +188.7% +161.2% 100% 100% +161.2%
≤90d 2 +44.3% +30.6% 50% 50% -81.3%
all 639 +0.5% -9.0% 53% 53% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 53% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 51% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 49% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 47% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% too few recent
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$2,166) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,364 vs −$1,542 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$1,007
Realized+$2,451
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses340 / 299
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)639 / 646
History coverage170d
Avg bet$1,671
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 639 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $227 $262 +$35 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $217 $183 −$34 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $148 $166 +$18 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $117 $156 +$39 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $127 $88 −$39 (-31%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $8 $76 +$68 (+868%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $111 $76 −$35 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 207 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $39 +$73 +189%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Mar 25 $500 −$500 -100%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 19 $1,500 −$1,494 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5 Mar 19 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 18 $3,000 −$2,990 -100%
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5) Mar 18 $4,564 +$3,973 +87%
1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Mar 16 $2,030 −$2,030 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 15 $4,015 −$4,013 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Saint Joseph's Hawks (-2.5) Mar 14 $413 +$287 +70%
California-San Diego Tritons vs. CSUN Matadors Mar 13 $3,547 −$3,532 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Missouri Tigers Mar 12 $3,000 +$596 +20%
Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-6.5) Mar 12 $4,626 +$3,761 +81%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes Mar 12 $4,500 −$4,480 -100%
Spread: Temple Owls (-1.5) Mar 12 $8,450 +$4,537 +54%
Spread: Florida Atlantic Owls (-1.5) Mar 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Temple Owls vs. Florida Atlantic Owls Mar 12 $5,732 −$5,291 -92%
Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Mar 12 $4,770 −$4,770 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Mar 12 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5,000 +$814 +16%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 11 $10,770 +$8,635 +80%
Montana Grizzlies vs. Portland State Vikings Mar 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Kansas State Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars: O/U 165.5 Mar 11 $6,000 +$3,990 +66%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $5,000 +$3,612 +72%
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Mar 10 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 10 $1,770 +$1,642 +93%
Spread: Robert Morris Colonials (-5.5) Mar 10 $8,100 +$6,900 +85%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Mar 10 $2,320 +$1,680 +72%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 10 $8,120 −$8,120 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 10 $1,590 +$1,410 +89%
Spread: Alabama State Hornets (-6.5) Mar 10 $1,692 +$1,625 +96%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $2,600 +$1,400 +54%
NEC vs. FC Volendam: O/U 3.5 Mar 09 $3,984 +$66 +2%
Northwestern State Demons vs. Nicholls Colonels Mar 09 $7,219 +$5,721 +79%
AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Mar 09 $2,000 +$2,322 +116%
Blues vs. Ducks Mar 08 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Mar 08 $1,380 −$1,380 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $3,284 −$3,284 -100%
Bruins vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Mar 08 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays Mar 08 $2,482 +$1,517 +61%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $700 +$285 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $4,000 +$1,964 +49%
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Mar 08 $3,000 +$1,546 +52%
Utah vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Mar 08 $2,000 +$2,348 +117%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Mercer Bears Mar 08 $6,069 −$6,060 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $2,000 +$3,443 +172%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Sabres vs. Penguins Mar 06 $1,000 +$942 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 47m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 52m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 52m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 52m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 52m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 52m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 53m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $111 54m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $39 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $114 19d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $120 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $131 19d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $152 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $223 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $232 19d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 62¢ $500 88d
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels BUY North Carolina Tar Heels 56¢ $1,500 94d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 95d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,000 95d
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks BUY SMU Mustangs 75¢ $3,000 95d
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5) BUY Howard Bison 53¢ $1,064 96d
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5) BUY Howard Bison 53¢ $3,500 96d
1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 58¢ $2,013 98d
1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 58¢ $17 98d
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks BUY Vanderbilt Commodores 55¢ $366 98d
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks BUY Vanderbilt Commodores 55¢ $24 98d
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks BUY Vanderbilt Commodores 55¢ $276 98d
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks BUY Vanderbilt Commodores 55¢ $39 98d
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks BUY Vanderbilt Commodores 55¢ $12 98d
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks BUY Vanderbilt Commodores 55¢ $2,947 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,007.31 · official $1,007.31 (match) · 2536 history records