Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x873a…17c9 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate97%34W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$27
sports 2% +$4
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 25% -1.7%
≤90d 35 +3.3% -6.5% 97% 20% -10.6%
all 35 +3.3% -6.5% 97% 20% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 20% -10.6%
10% -15.5% 6% -19.2%
15% -23.6% 3% -27.0%
20% -31.1% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$80 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses34 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage87d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $130 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $41 +$5 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $137 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $32 +$5 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $80 +$4 +5%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $7 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $88 +$2 +2%
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinner Mar 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $77 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 22h
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 16d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 22d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $20 36d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $80 36d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 37d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $130 37d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $41 38d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $39 39d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $137 41d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 41d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 41d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 43d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 43d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 43d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 45d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $126 45d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $125 45d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 45d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $15 46d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $80 48d
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 50d
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils BUY Jannik Sinner 84¢ $14 50d
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar BUY Jannik Sinner 93¢ $13 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.00 · official $77.00 (match) · 73 history records