Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x873e…4eac sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$42
other 8% −$15
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -18.3% -26.1% 56% 28% -7.8%
≤30d 18 -18.3% -26.1% 56% 28% -7.8%
≤90d 19 -22.6% -30.0% 53% 26% -7.9%
all 24 -23.5% -30.8% 54% 29% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 29% -8.0%
10% -37.4% 25% -16.8%
15% -43.4% 12% -24.9%
20% -49.0% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage352d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 83¢ 86¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? No 42¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -53%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -56%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $42 −$42 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $303 −$47 -16%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $110 +$7 +7%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +130%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$35 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $201 +$23 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $299 +$9 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Sep 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? Jul 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say “Farmer” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech? Jul 05 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $102 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 20¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1 2h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $147 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $42 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 6h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $220 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $201 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 19¢ $35 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $101 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 28¢ $1 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $101 17h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 42¢ $1 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $106 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $107 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 24h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $2 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 40¢ $1 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $11 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $136 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.89 · official $104.89 (match) · 56 history records