Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x873f…009a other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$214 (-6%) realized −$169 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%107W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$53
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$60
politics 31% −$2
world 9% −$57
sports 5% −$101
finance 3% +$5
tech 3% −$2
culture 3% −$4
crypto 3% −$32
weather 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 43% +17.6%
≤30d 10 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 40% +13.8%
≤90d 32 -6.6% -15.5% 69% 28% -7.2%
all 154 -1.2% -10.6% 69% 38% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 38% -11.8%
10% -19.2% 19% -20.3%
15% -27.0% 14% -28.0%
20% -34.2% 10% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$169
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses107 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)154 / 163
History coverage242d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $82 $52 −$30 (-37%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $64 +$83 +128%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Cole Palmer be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 28 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 24 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 +$5 +26%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $143 +$19 +13%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 21 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 14 $40 −$12 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 11 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 5? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $15 +$1 +7%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 27 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 20? Apr 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 16? Apr 20 $11 $0 +4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Apr 20 $9 $0 +2%
New pandemic in 2026? Apr 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14 Apr 16 $11 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 09 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 8? Apr 09 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $10 $0 +4%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 27 $35 +$6 +17%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $13 +$4 +28%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Mar 14 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Mar 10 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Mar 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand P Mar 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Mar 07 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Mar 07 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 06 $14 +$16 +117%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 06 $18 +$1 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 05 $5 +$1 +17%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? Mar 04 $9 +$1 +16%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 04 $5 +$3 +52%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Mar 02 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 42¢ $38 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 50¢ $23 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $64 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 31¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 30¢ $20 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $26 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 26¢ $11 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 28¢ $10 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 36¢ $10 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 32¢ $10 14d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $21 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND BUY 31¢ $11 16d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 19d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 16¢ $15 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 24d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 24d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 25d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 25d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $53 30d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 28¢ $57 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.44 · official $66.44 (match) · 471 history records