Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x8742…6fa5 crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$136 (+11%) realized +$138 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%57W / 29L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$151
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$77
sports 35% +$61
crypto 7% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +21.1% +9.6% 81% 75% +3.1%
≤30d 22 +3.3% -6.5% 68% 64% +2.2%
≤90d 24 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 67% +2.2%
all 86 -7.4% -16.2% 66% 55% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 55% +0.2%
10% -24.2% 42% -9.3%
15% -31.6% 30% -18.1%
20% -38.3% 17% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses57 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage178d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $260 +$9 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $154 −$153 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $213 +$201 +94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$4 +52%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$29 +29%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 $0 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 +$11 +89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 -58%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 04 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 03 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 03 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 03 $1 +$2 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 92¢ $139 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 66¢ $101 17h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 52¢ $51 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $269 38h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $260 39h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $50 40h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 77¢ $101 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 88¢ $11 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 46¢ $1 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $1 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 60¢ $5 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $130 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.69 · official $97.69 (match) · 173 history records