Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8746…f522 weather 295 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,138 (-8%) realized −$2,175 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%164W / 129L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$572
14 days−$705
30 days−$742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$1,918
crypto 0% −$21
sports 0% +$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -31.5% -38.1% 52% 17% -22.4%
≤30d 80 -22.2% -29.6% 56% 32% -16.0%
≤90d 238 -19.6% -27.2% 56% 32% -16.7%
all 293 -15.7% -23.7% 56% 33% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 33% -16.5%
10% -31.0% 20% -24.5%
15% -37.7% 12% -31.8%
20% -43.8% 7% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$38 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$2,175
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses164 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)293 / 295
History coverage110d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $99 $120 +$21 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $72 $89 +$17 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $107 −$9 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $559 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $15 −$6 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $164 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $44 −$41 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $99 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$12 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $80 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $438 −$437 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $531 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $413 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $123 −$119 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $593 +$27 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $372 +$47 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $151 +$20 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $506 −$111 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $261 −$15 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $376 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $136 −$111 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $391 +$54 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$11 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $345 +$46 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $39 +$10 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $109 +$18 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $161 −$130 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $228 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $370 +$57 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $52 −$31 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $160 +$57 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $67 −$28 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$14 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $86 +$37 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$16 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $72 −$27 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$10 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 81¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 82¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $82 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 93¢ $165 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 91¢ $175 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 91¢ $173 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? SELL Yes 98¢ $173 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 67¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 92¢ $150 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $109 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.18 · official $208.18 (match) · 1040 history records