trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.4% | -8.3% | 100% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 56% | 11% | -11.9% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 69% | 15% | -11.9% |
| all | 22 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 82% | 14% | -11.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.5% | 14% | -11.3% |
| 10% | -21.8% | 5% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 5% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 0% | -34.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co | May 26 | $4 | +$1 | +15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8AM ET | May 26 | $91 | +$9 | +10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10AM ET | May 26 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9AM ET | May 26 | $481 | −$480 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | May 26 | $9,133 | −$11 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? | May 25 | $9,149 | −$1 | -0% |
| EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? | Apr 19 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? | Apr 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 19 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 19 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? | Mar 17 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 17 | $1 | +$1 | +44% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Feb 08 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 08 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? | Feb 08 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 28? | Jan 13 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 28? | Dec 28 | $6,127 | +$6 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 21? | Dec 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |