Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x874b…4af0
world · 293 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$890 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$862 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,683
Realized−$862
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses91 / 99
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions117
Markets (closed)190 / 293
History coverage57d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 117 History 190 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$119
14 days−$456
30 days−$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $329 $331 +$2 (+0%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $181 $180 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $122 $115 −$7 (-5%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $54 $60 +$6 (+11%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 32¢ 49¢ $39 $59 +$21 (+53%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $48 $38 −$10 (-20%)
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? No 87¢ 100¢ $32 $36 +$5 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 24¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 9¢ 100¢ $2 $25 +$22 (+1011%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+66%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 82¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? No 84¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+19%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? No 87¢ 97¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 82¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire? Jun 12 $6 −$12 -200%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -198%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$38 -197%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 12 $0 +$10 +21802%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$27 -200%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$12 -39136%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Jun 12 $0 $0 +111%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -200%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -2304%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$3 -200%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +15%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 +$1 +43%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $32 +$10 +30%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $54 +$12 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $7 +$7 +96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $80 −$63 -79%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $44 +$4 +9%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $149 −$15 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $22 −$7 -30%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $19 +$20 +106%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $32 −$30 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$6 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$52 +1656%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $65 −$61 -93%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $10 −$21 -200%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -102%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $26 −$11 -44%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $94 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $43 −$17 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$2 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $790 +$55 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,394 −$199 -14%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $5 −$9 -194%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $3 −$5 -194%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $57 −$32 -56%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $55 −$1 -2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $47 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$3 -148%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $356 −$32 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% −$945
crypto 9% +$49
other 7% −$23
politics 6% −$84
sports 2% +$168
finance 1% −$20
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 29m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 96¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 96¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $11 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 97¢ $21 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 96¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 95¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 94¢ $6 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 3h
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $15 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+137.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +153.2% +129.1% 56% 44% -15.6%
≤30d 110 +214.7% +184.7% 52% 32% -7.5%
≤90d 190 +162.1% +137.1% 48% 32% -9.6%
all 190 +162.1% +137.1% 48% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +137.1% 32% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +114.4% 23% -18.2%
15% +93.7% 21% -26.1%
20% +74.7% 18% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,683.32 · official $1,665.60 · 3500 history records