Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:34:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x874d…512a world 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate18%13W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$8
other 23% −$1
politics 18% +$1
sports 9% −$14
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 67 -1.6% -10.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 74 -3.3% -12.5% 18% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 1% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 1% -18.7%
15% -28.5% 1% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses13 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage541d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $31 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $44 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 −$1 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $7 $0 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $89 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $88 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $112 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $30 −$6 -19%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $33 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $128 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $4 $0 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $112 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $2 −$1 -57%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $36 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $31 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $29 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $29 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $29 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $13 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $4 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records