Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8751…f9c4 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$214 (-38%) realized −$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$62
other 32% −$84
crypto 21% −$69
world 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -36.1% -42.2% 23% 23% -37.8%
≤30d 30 -36.1% -42.2% 23% 23% -37.8%
≤90d 32 -40.1% -45.8% 22% 22% -45.3%
all 58 -34.6% -40.8% 29% 26% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 26% -52.2%
10% -46.5% 22% -56.7%
15% -51.7% 19% -60.9%
20% -56.4% 16% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage106d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$3 -30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$7 -69%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$3 +62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$6 -37%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 +$1 +81%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Mar 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $68 −$35 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will South Africa win on 2 BUY 69¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $7 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $3 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $10 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 52¢ $9 22h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 22h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $10 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 48¢ $5 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $10 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 41h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 41h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY 35¢ $7 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 74¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.89 · official $34.89 · 120 history records