Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8753…85ad sports 545 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$33,826 (+5%) realized +$31,419 · open +$2,407
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%286W / 370L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,210per market
Trades / day95.9pace
Fees−$8,861est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$19,124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$11,140
other 5% −$8,816
crypto 0% $0
world 0% −$800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -50.4% -55.1% 26% 26% -51.2%
≤30d 587 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 44% -22.9%
≤90d 656 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 43% -24.7%
all 656 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 43% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.1% 43% -24.7%
10% -33.1% 43% -31.9%
15% ← realistic here -39.6% 42% -38.5%
20% -45.5% 41% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,423) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$925 vs −$1,058 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$19,124
Realized+$31,419
Unrealized+$2,407
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses286 / 370
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$8,861
Open positions18
Markets (closed)656 / 545
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$1,210
Trades / day95.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $3,101 $3,412 +$312 (+10%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 39¢ 78¢ $1,558 $3,096 +$1,538 (+99%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 92¢ $1,999 $2,719 +$720 (+36%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $1,474 $2,267 +$793 (+54%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $3,158 $2,188 −$969 (-31%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Under 56¢ 81¢ $1,077 $1,568 +$490 (+46%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 74¢ $745 $1,149 +$404 (+54%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 46¢ $901 $774 −$128 (-14%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 56¢ 51¢ $563 $513 −$50 (-9%)
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 34¢ 61¢ $253 $455 +$201 (+79%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $400 $300 −$100 (-25%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 39¢ 54¢ $189 $257 +$69 (+36%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 46¢ 54¢ $139 $163 +$24 (+17%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $123 $126 +$3 (+2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 43¢ 4¢ $800 $65 −$735 (-92%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 61¢ 13¢ $205 $44 −$161 (-79%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 39¢ 80¢ $14 $29 +$15 (+105%)
Will Jose Soriano win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 353 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,247 −$2,247 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 20 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 20 $2,357 −$2,357 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $940 −$940 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Jun 20 $833 −$833 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 20 $801 −$801 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 20 $4,520 −$4,520 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $1,421 −$1,421 -100%
Power Slap 20: Andrew Provost vs. Anthony Blackburn (Fight 6) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 Jun 20 $711 −$711 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $540 −$540 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $867 −$867 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $432 −$432 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 20 $243 −$429 -177%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 Jun 20 $800 −$800 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 20 $2,535 −$2,535 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 20 $800 −$800 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 20 $801 −$801 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $940 −$940 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $922 −$922 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference? Jun 20 $3,036 −$3,036 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $1,355 −$1,355 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 Jun 20 $833 −$833 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $901 −$901 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $979 −$979 -100%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $921 −$921 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5 Jun 20 $2,141 −$2,141 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 20 $2,038 −$2,038 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 20 $558 −$558 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 103.5 Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $800 −$800 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 Jun 20 $792 −$792 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 20 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 Jun 20 $513 −$513 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $2,120 −$2,120 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $699 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 2h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 61¢ $18 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $154 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $75 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 48¢ $50 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 48¢ $5 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $813 2h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 61¢ $188 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $800 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $995 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $551 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $303 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $52 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $102 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $663 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $27 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $268 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $266 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $133 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,124.05 · official $19,124.24 (match) · 3500 history records