Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x8753…fa2e sports 364 markets active 4d ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$322 (+7%) realized +$356 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%123W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$385
14 days+$437
30 days+$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$247
economics 12% −$17
world 6% +$3
other 5% −$3
crypto 1% −$30
politics 1% +$104
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +375.3% +330.1% 90% 90% +331.5%
≤30d 170 +10.3% -0.2% 26% 25% +4.5%
≤90d 280 +10.1% -0.4% 27% 27% -1.1%
all 333 +14.7% +3.8% 37% 30% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 30% -2.1%
10% -6.2% 28% -11.5%
15% -15.2% 27% -20.0%
20% -23.5% 26% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$356
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses123 / 210
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions31
Markets (closed)333 / 364
History coverage163d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 25¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 25¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$121 +1180%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$31 +301%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$20 +197%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$23 +224%
Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iceland vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Latvia vs. Slovakia end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lithuania vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Luxembourg vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Gibraltar vs. Kosovo end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Slovenia vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Israel vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hungary vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belarus vs. Armenia end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$22 +211%
Will Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$23 +221%
Will Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$24 +232%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$25 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 9d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 10d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.00 · official $276.16 (match) · 700 history records