Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x875e…e6b5 weather 725 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11,618 (+5%) realized +$11,619 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%686W / 38L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day60.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,875
other 0% +$6
sports 0% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +3.7% -6.1% 98% 9% -7.6%
≤30d 350 +2.2% -7.5% 94% 7% -8.0%
≤90d 724 +3.2% -6.6% 95% 7% -8.3%
all 724 +3.2% -6.6% 95% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 7% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 4% -17.1%
15% -23.7% 3% -25.1%
20% -31.2% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×11.56 per $1 lost it wins $11.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$11,619
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses686 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)724 / 725
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$303
Trades / day60.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 724 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 26 $143 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $696 +$103 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 25 $1,266 +$114 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $394 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2,391 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 25 $1,595 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1,587 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1,987 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 23 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $61 +$99 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $354 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $824 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $319 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $797 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $258 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June Jun 22 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $392 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 21 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 21 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $314 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $372 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $268 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$57 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 20 $390 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 20? Jun 20 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 20 $798 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $149 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $143 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $250 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $213 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $337 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $399 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $399 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $158 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $192 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $270 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $119 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $799 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $99 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $96 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $99 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $93 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 74¢ $300 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $219 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $180 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $399 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $400 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $399 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $125 21h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.10 · official $9.10 (match) · 3500 history records