Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x875e…9a14 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$365 (+7%) realized +$302 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$1,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$370
crypto 7% −$4
sports 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -21.0% -28.6% 33% 30% -3.0%
≤30d 27 -21.0% -28.6% 33% 30% -3.0%
≤90d 27 -21.0% -28.6% 33% 30% -3.0%
all 27 -21.0% -28.6% 33% 30% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 30% -3.0%
10% -35.4% 26% -12.3%
15% -41.6% 22% -20.8%
20% -47.4% 19% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$42 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,269
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $500 $511 +$11 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $300 $359 +$59 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $336 $333 −$4 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 27 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $133 +$20 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $162 −$20 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $303 −$133 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $214 −$40 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $556 +$331 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$20 -20%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$20 +201%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $162 −$158 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$23 +93%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$46 -89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $504 +$163 +32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $603 +$16 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $758 +$414 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 55¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $295 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $153 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $142 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $402 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $171 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $174 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $888 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $455 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $81 43h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 47h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,269.15 · official $1,269.15 (match) · 60 history records