Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x875f…aadd sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,099 (-21%) realized −$8,019 · open −$80
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$636per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$382est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$818
7 days−$1,787
14 days−$4,887
30 days−$5,713
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$3,782
tech 7% +$45
other 4% −$1,340
crypto 3% −$1,165
politics 1% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 50% -29.1%
≤30d 52 -16.1% -24.1% 46% 44% -24.0%
≤90d 52 -16.1% -24.1% 46% 44% -24.0%
all 56 -18.2% -26.0% 45% 43% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 43% -25.3%
10% -33.1% 34% -32.5%
15% -39.5% 25% -39.0%
20% -45.5% 21% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$481 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$8,019
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$382
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage402d
Avg bet$636
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 18¢ $42 $4 −$38 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,007 +$324 +32%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $610 −$600 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $204 +$367 +180%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $404 +$184 +46%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U Jun 24 $411 +$721 +176%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $405 −$400 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1 Jun 24 $675 +$508 +75%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosn Jun 24 $441 +$233 +53%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 AND Switzerla Jun 24 $218 +$395 +181%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $135 +$86 +64%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $100 −$100 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $206 −$202 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $136 −$135 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$71 +70%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,670 −$1,651 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,473 +$538 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $498 −$498 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $657 −$646 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $128 +$410 +322%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,205 +$406 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,016 +$695 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1,014 +$805 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,008 +$523 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,009 +$434 +43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $686 +$114 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $2,899 +$45 +2%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $155 −$144 -93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$31 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? May 31 $151 −$15 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $107 −$104 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $206 −$200 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $508 −$500 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $106 −$100 -94%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,143 +$982 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $542 −$531 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 30 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 38¢ $1,363 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,332 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,007 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,017 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $610 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $571 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $588 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U SELL 98¢ $1,132 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $404 5h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $405 5h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1 SELL 98¢ $1,183 5h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1 BUY 55¢ $675 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosn SELL 99¢ $675 7h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U BUY 35¢ $411 7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $204 7h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 AND Switzerla SELL 99¢ $613 7h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 AND Switzerla BUY 34¢ $218 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $220 9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosn BUY 64¢ $441 9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qa BUY 48¢ $508 9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qa BUY 20¢ $205 9h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,017 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $100 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $206 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $136 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $244 5d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 5d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,670 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1,024 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.23 · official $61.23 (match) · 148 history records