Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8761…fa08 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$2
world 27% +$1
politics 21% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 7% −$1
finance 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 0% -9.2%
all 38 -2.4% -11.7% 26% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage316d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 16 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 12 $11 $0 -3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $64 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Aug 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $13 $0 -0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 08 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 07 $73 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 06 $76 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $14 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $14 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $26 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $26 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 305d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 91¢ $5 309d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $7 309d
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 309d
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 309d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records