Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8765…ed81 weather 383 markets active 32d ago coverage 48d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$140,842 (+153%) realized +$109,037 · open +$31,805
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%65W / 362L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$93,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$25,912
politics 23% −$17,761
world 23% +$595
sports 0% −$157
finance 0% −$111
weather 0% −$23
crypto 0% −$82
tech 0% −$30
culture 0% +$88
economics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+70.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1226.9% +1100.5% 100% 100% +490.7%
≤30d 48 +1226.9% +1100.5% 100% 100% +490.7%
≤90d 427 +87.9% +70.0% 15% 15% -45.0%
all 427 +87.9% +70.0% 15% 15% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +70.0% 15% -45.0%
10% ← realistic here +53.7% 15% -50.3%
15% +38.9% 15% -55.1%
20% +25.3% 15% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -87% → late +262% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$68 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$93,659
Realized+$109,037
Unrealized+$31,805
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses65 / 362
Open positions451
Markets (closed)427 / 383
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$241
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 451 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $43,194 $43,980 +$786 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ $195 $8,312 +$8,117 (+4156%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ $195 $6,012 +$5,817 (+2979%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 15¢ 96¢ $116 $744 +$628 (+541%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $195 $712 +$517 (+265%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ $18 $529 +$511 (+2850%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 16¢ 87¢ $96 $522 +$426 (+444%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 17¢ 76¢ $102 $459 +$357 (+350%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 16¢ 90¢ $80 $452 +$372 (+466%)
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 39¢ 98¢ $177 $446 +$269 (+152%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $195 $438 +$242 (+124%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $195 $438 +$242 (+124%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 26¢ 99¢ $104 $396 +$292 (+281%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 94¢ $88 $374 +$286 (+325%)
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30? No 17¢ 99¢ $64 $371 +$307 (+482%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 18¢ 80¢ $83 $367 +$284 (+342%)
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? No 38¢ 99¢ $140 $359 +$219 (+157%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $195 $338 +$142 (+73%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $195 $338 +$142 (+73%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 24¢ 97¢ $78 $314 +$236 (+303%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $195 $312 +$117 (+60%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ $13 $286 +$273 (+2109%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 24¢ 97¢ $66 $271 +$205 (+309%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 14¢ 44¢ $84 $261 +$177 (+211%)
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? No 22¢ 100¢ $55 $250 +$195 (+356%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nothing Ever Happens: March Jun 15 $115 +$833 +725%
Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standing Jun 15 $70 +$430 +614%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $9 +$660 +7697%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 15 $116 +$326 +281%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $8 +$414 +5512%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 15 $86 +$175 +203%
Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$209 +673%
Will Lille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? Jun 15 $25 +$201 +809%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 15 $1 +$211 +14516%
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jun 15 $5 +$189 +4091%
Will St. Pauli be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 seas Jun 15 $29 +$140 +488%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slove Jun 15 $40 +$114 +285%
Will Harry Kane have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champi Jun 15 $13 +$134 +1011%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $2 +$140 +6150%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t Jun 15 $3 +$124 +4900%
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 15 $2 +$122 +4900%
Will Monaco finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? Jun 15 $38 +$85 +222%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 15 $1 +$119 +14619%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? Jun 15 $3 +$102 +3233%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$101 +8992%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 15 $11 +$86 +773%
Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 15 $21 +$66 +317%
Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 15 $0 +$87 +35542%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 15 $5 +$80 +1578%
Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 15 $34 +$49 +144%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $18 +$61 +335%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 15 $1 +$77 +12400%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jun 15 $9 +$98 +1134%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 15 $2 +$64 +3267%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Jun 15 $2 +$33 +1379%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 15 $7 +$28 +426%
Will 100 Thieves qualify to a S-tier tournament by June 1 ? Jun 15 $7 +$26 +400%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 15 $1 +$30 +4900%
Will Jon Cooper win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 15 $1 +$24 +3471%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 15 $0 +$19 +4900%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +223%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Jun 15 $1 +$16 +2400%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1329%
Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jun 15 $0 +$16 +4900%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$15 +3234%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-03-22? Jun 15 $2 +$12 +567%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 15 $3 +$11 +335%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1329%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M Jun 15 $0 +$13 +3234%
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +233%
Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +809%
Services Down Parlay Jun 15 $3 +$9 +270%
Will the People Power Party win 4 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 15 $0 +$9 +24900%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $23,575 −$23,574 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 05 $23,834 +$66 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $13 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $265 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93,658.65 · official $95,452.93 · 3500 history records