Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
87 0x8766…066c other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$847 (+4%) realized +$832 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate81%192W / 46L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$391
14 days+$383
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$708
world 11% +$51
crypto 2% −$12
sports 2% −$67
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +8.1% -2.2% 95% 47% -0.5%
≤30d 65 -2.3% -11.6% 78% 46% -5.4%
≤90d 238 +1.7% -8.0% 81% 36% -6.6%
all 238 +1.7% -8.0% 81% 36% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 36% -6.6%
10% -16.8% 16% -15.5%
15% -24.8% 8% -23.7%
20% -32.2% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$832
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses192 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage89d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 85¢ 90¢ $250 $265 +$15 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $220 +$11 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $116 +$26 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $482 +$33 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $401 +$24 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $503 +$113 +22%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $496 +$10 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $443 +$53 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $417 +$26 +6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $137 +$30 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $84 +$53 +63%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 +$10 +17%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $80 +$6 +8%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $19 +$5 +27%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $66 +$7 +11%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $73 +$12 +16%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $61 +$8 +14%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $119 −$105 -89%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $218 −$102 -47%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 +$9 +8%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $185 +$45 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $201 −$16 -8%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $89 +$10 +11%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $9 −$7 -80%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $25 +$21 +84%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $15 +$2 +11%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $74 +$18 +24%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $12 −$9 -75%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $50 −$45 -89%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$4 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 66¢ $51 55m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 92¢ $200 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 91¢ $108 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 91¢ $12 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 91¢ $31 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $49 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $100 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $102 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 98¢ $100 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $220 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $141 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $75 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 66¢ $25 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $15 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $515 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $482 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $425 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $301 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $100 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $300 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 95¢ $616 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $503 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $450 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $46 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $6 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $496 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.30 · official $265.30 (match) · 754 history records