Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x876b…524d other 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%51W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$13
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$32
other 26% +$1
sports 18% −$10
politics 3% +$17
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$3
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 31 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 10% -10.0%
≤90d 38 +0.0% -9.5% 34% 8% -10.2%
all 126 +7.3% -2.9% 40% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 5% -9.9%
10% -12.2% 3% -18.5%
15% -20.7% 3% -26.4%
20% -28.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses51 / 75
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage529d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $79 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $101 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $98 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $82 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $149 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $192 −$8 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $94 −$4 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $63 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $90 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $145 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $284 −$2 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $94 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $216 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $2 −$1 -24%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $77 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $36 −$8 -24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $4 +$1 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $110 −$6 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $1 +$2 +119%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $201 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $681 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $681 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $118 −$13 -11%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $354 −$8 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $34 −$1 -3%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 21 $6 $0 +3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Jul 20 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 19 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $69 6m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $88 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $79 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $79 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $80 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $80 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $88 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $88 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $81 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $82 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $83 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $83 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $65 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $64 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $58 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $23 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $82 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $6 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $91 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $94 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $51 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.78 · official $19.29 · 446 history records