Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x876b…d4a1 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,534 (+5%) realized +$5,405 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate68%122W / 58L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Fees−$1,172est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$573
7 days+$2,112
14 days+$4,785
30 days+$4,909
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$4,161
other 5% +$877
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +1.5% -8.2% 71% 40% -4.6%
≤30d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 68% 43% -5.5%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 68% 43% -5.5%
all 180 -0.2% -9.7% 68% 43% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 43% -5.5%
10% -18.3% 34% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here -26.2% 29% -22.8%
20% -33.4% 20% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$369 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,798
Realized+$5,405
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses122 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,172
Open positions3
Markets (closed)180 / 183
History coverage15d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 70¢ 100¢ $1,227 $1,753 +$526 (+43%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 41¢ 0¢ $397 $0 −$397 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 15 $1,138 −$1,131 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $943 +$771 +82%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $461 +$430 +93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $684 −$564 -82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,212 +$544 +45%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $585 −$556 -95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,149 +$154 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,322 +$594 +45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,460 +$140 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $89 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,353 −$1,353 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $645 −$267 -41%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Jun 14 $14 +$10 +70%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $752 +$281 +37%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $8,538 +$1,451 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,248 −$1,248 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,446 +$1,283 +89%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $374 −$317 -85%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $240 +$319 +133%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $117 +$23 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $586 −$187 -32%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $298 +$315 +106%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $83 +$185 +224%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $541 −$541 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $331 −$281 -85%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $174 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,102 +$437 +40%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $896 +$210 +24%
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $996 −$943 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,332 +$756 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,041 +$406 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $35 +$52 +150%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 10 $1,089 +$806 +74%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $257 +$3 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $257 +$3 +1%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $97 +$38 +39%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $169 −$169 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $8 −$4 -55%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $372 +$182 +49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $109 +$16 +15%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-6.5) vs TYLOO (+6.5) Jun 09 $68 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 99¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $376 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 70¢ $1,229 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $2 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 63¢ $9 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 65¢ $0 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 62¢ $0 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $10 15h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 55¢ $466 15h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 55¢ $3 16h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 55¢ $474 16h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 51¢ $461 16h
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 66¢ $1,131 16h
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL Team Liquid 70¢ $7 16h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 71¢ $9 16h
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $2 16h
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $5 16h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $8 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $28 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $26 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $25 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $73 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $89 20h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 69¢ $13 20h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 69¢ $617 20h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 69¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 69¢ $469 20h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 69¢ $11 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,798.12 · official $1,798.12 (match) · 834 history records