trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? | No | 71¢ | 70¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 48¢ | 44¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-9%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 75¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +55% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +101% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +53% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +44% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 17 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? | Apr 27 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c | Apr 27 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? | Apr 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? | Nov 07 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Nov 07 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +30.0% | +17.7% | 71% | 71% | +18.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +27.2% | +15.1% | 78% | 67% | +15.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +9.2% | -1.2% | 54% | 46% | -0.9% |
| all | 15 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 47% | 40% | -26.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.5% | 40% | -26.8% |
| 10% | -17.2% | 40% | -33.8% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 33% | -40.2% |
| 20% | -32.6% | 27% | -46.1% |