Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8775…34a2 world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,364 (+8%) realized +$1,364 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,313per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$403
14 days+$403
30 days+$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$1,220
politics 6% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.6% +0.9% 100% 33% -0.4%
≤30d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 86% 29% -2.5%
≤90d 11 +8.2% -2.1% 91% 27% -1.8%
all 13 +7.5% -2.7% 92% 23% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 23% -2.3%
10% -12.0% 0% -11.7%
15% -20.5% 0% -20.2%
20% -28.3% 0% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$16 · ×7.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×84.54 per $1 lost it wins $84.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage108d
Avg bet$1,313
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 22 $1,000 +$85 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $1,000 +$205 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $2,000 +$113 +6%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 04 $1,000 −$16 -2%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,000 +$51 +5%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $1,000 +$46 +5%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$136 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,000 +$58 +6%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 04 $1,000 +$37 +4%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, May 04 $3,000 +$200 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $2,074 +$365 +18%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $1,000 +$35 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 09 $999 +$41 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,205 28h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1,000 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $2,113 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1,000 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $1,000 7d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $1,000 12d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June SELL No 86¢ $984 18d
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 20 BUY No 96¢ $1,000 41d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,000 45d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 95¢ $1,000 46d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 87¢ $1,000 57d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 57d
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, BUY No 93¢ $1,000 63d
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, BUY No 93¢ $1,000 68d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 96¢ $1,000 80d
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, BUY No 96¢ $1,000 81d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $2,440 82d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $999 99d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $1,075 102d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL No 88¢ $1,035 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 85¢ $1,000 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 93¢ $1,040 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $999 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records