Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8775…a0ea other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+8%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% +$69
other 22% +$2
world 18% −$1
politics 16% +$2
culture 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -7.0% -15.8% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -7.0% -15.8% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 41 +0.1% -9.4% 54% 5% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 5% -2.1%
10% -18.1% 5% -11.4%
15% -26.0% 2% -20.0%
20% -33.3% 2% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×10.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.2 per $1 lost it wins $17.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage447d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $4 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $25 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $27 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 11 $20 −$1 -6%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 10 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 08 $20 $0 -2%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brice Oligui Nguema win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? Apr 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 11 $16 $0 -1%
Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%? Apr 09 $1 $0 -33%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 06 $3 +$1 +27%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 05 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 04 $2 $0 -3%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 04 $1 $0 -8%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 03 $3 $0 -2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 31 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $25 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $25 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $11 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $14 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $26 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $4 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $23 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $25 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $24 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $28 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $27 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 27d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 SELL Yes $10 101d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 SELL Yes $4 101d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 SELL Yes $5 101d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 BUY Yes $20 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records