Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
87 0x8777…9b72 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+4%) realized +$143 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$49
other 15% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 47% -2.5%
≤30d 15 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 47% -2.5%
≤90d 15 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 47% -2.5%
all 15 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 47% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 47% -2.5%
10% -10.7% 47% -11.9%
15% -19.3% 40% -20.4%
20% -27.3% 40% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nazim Sadykhov win by KO or TKO? Yes 43¢ 28¢ $45 $30 −$15 (-33%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 78¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Ikram Aliskerov win by KO or TKO? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $206 −$12 -6%
Will Michal Oleksiejczuk win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $100 +$7 +8%
Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $14 +$21 +145%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Javier Reyes win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +67%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $80 +$21 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bekzat Almakhan win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +82%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $55 +$38 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nazim Sadykhov win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 16m
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 78¢ $195 17m
Will Ikram Aliskerov win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 48m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 78¢ $91 49m
Will Michal Oleksiejczuk win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 73¢ $20 1h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 1¢ $2 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $107 1h
Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 100¢ $8 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 64¢ $5 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will Javier Reyes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 2h
Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $101 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 39¢ $2 3h
Will Bekzat Almakhan win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 98¢ $3 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 82¢ $206 5h
Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 9h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 79¢ $80 9h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $93 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 58¢ $45 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 59¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.09 · official $30.63 (match) · 28 history records