Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
87 0x877b…4f25 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,519 (-20%) realized −$1,516 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$954
14 days−$954
30 days−$954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$1,568
sports 9% +$72
crypto 2% +$61
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +29.3% +17.0% 24% 24% -56.0%
≤30d 29 +29.3% +17.0% 24% 24% -56.0%
≤90d 29 +29.3% +17.0% 24% 24% -56.0%
all 65 +13.0% +2.2% 38% 38% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 38% -28.6%
10% -7.5% 38% -35.4%
15% -16.5% 29% -41.7%
20% -24.7% 17% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$88 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$1,516
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 72
History coverage284d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -72%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 +$48 +464%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $113 +$98 +87%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$61 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-08? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Jun 17 $534 −$534 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$46 +46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $100 +$78 +78%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? Feb 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Feb 07 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? Feb 07 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Feb 07 $653 −$653 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Feb 07 $341 +$167 +49%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? Oct 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-01? Oct 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? Oct 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-30? Oct 05 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Oct 05 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? Oct 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Oct 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? Oct 05 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04? Oct 05 $150 +$34 +23%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-10-03? Oct 04 $20 +$47 +233%
Will Getafe win on 2025-10-03? Oct 03 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? Oct 03 $67 +$47 +69%
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-03? Oct 03 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $15 +$52 +350%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 36m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 52¢ $57 13h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 20h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $102 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 53¢ $113 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $162 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $26 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.66 · official $371.68 · 275 history records