Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x877e…5f22 crypto 734 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$749 (+6%) realized +$693 · open +$56
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%343W / 374L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$437
14 days−$229
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$655
other 29% +$240
sports 11% −$464
tech 8% +$223
politics 1% −$39
culture 0% −$14
world 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -54.0% -58.4% 28% 22% -19.5%
≤30d 37 -42.3% -47.8% 35% 30% -13.8%
≤90d 347 -91.2% -92.0% 5% 3% -37.3%
all 717 -4.8% -13.9% 48% 46% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 46% -5.4%
10% -22.1% 45% -14.5%
15% -29.6% 44% -22.7%
20% -36.5% 42% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized+$693
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses343 / 374
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions15
Markets (closed)717 / 734
History coverage140d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $220 $258 +$38 (+17%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $22 $37 +$15 (+70%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $12 $26 +$14 (+116%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $8 −$4 (-36%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-38%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$16 +16%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $440 +$322 +73%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $357 −$350 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $151 +$63 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $301 +$32 +11%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $169 −$165 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $335 −$330 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $363 +$35 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $302 −$121 -40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $402 +$63 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $501 +$46 +9%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $121 +$58 +48%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$188 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 03 $100 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Raptors Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $51 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 32h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 65¢ $97 32h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 66¢ $101 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $440 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $153 40h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 34¢ $80 43h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 30¢ $204 44h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 17¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $153 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 26¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $218 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $858.90 · official $858.90 (match) · 2054 history records