Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x877f…0ab6 other 9 markets active 10h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$1
sports 20% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.6% +12.7% 88% 62% -3.3%
≤30d 9 +10.8% +0.2% 78% 56% -8.1%
≤90d 9 +10.8% +0.2% 78% 56% -8.1%
all 9 +10.8% +0.2% 78% 56% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 56% -8.1%
10% -9.4% 44% -16.9%
15% -18.1% 44% -24.9%
20% -26.2% 33% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 92¢ $3 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records