Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x8780…002e other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+26%) realized +$7 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$34
world 3% −$2
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 2 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 2 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -15.3%
all 2 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 50% -15.3%
10% -23.6% 0% -23.4%
15% -31.0% 0% -30.8%
20% -37.8% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage27d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $98 $133 +$35 (+35%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $105 25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.23 · official $160.23 (match) · 35 history records