Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8781…9c2f crypto 298 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (419 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,339 (-7%) realized −$3,339 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%139W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day419.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$4,308
sports 3% +$612
other 0% −$125
world 0% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (419 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 46% -16.5%
≤30d 298 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 46% -16.5%
≤90d 298 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 46% -16.5%
all 298 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 46% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover419.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 46% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 46% -24.4%
15% -31.7% 46% -31.7%
20% -38.4% 43% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$150 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses139 / 159
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)298 / 298
History coverage4d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day419.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 298 Trades
no open positions (147 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $263 −$260 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $165 +$135 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$54 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$39 +65%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $8 +$12 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$155 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$153 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $109 −$108 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $185 +$175 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$155 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $155 +$145 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $206 +$205 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $144 +$136 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $215 +$185 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $191 +$169 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $181 −$173 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $320 −$313 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $267 −$258 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $153 +$147 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $160 +$140 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $157 +$143 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $171 +$129 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $218 +$182 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $189 +$171 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $237 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $311 −$304 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $296 +$250 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $266 −$257 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $246 −$244 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $278 +$222 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $329 −$318 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $242 −$232 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $293 −$283 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $221 −$212 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$166 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$199 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $227 +$272 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $232 +$192 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $208 +$192 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $219 −$212 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $178 −$172 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $179 −$172 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $263 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $58 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $47 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1944 history records