Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8783…8d5f crypto 602 markets active 6h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,257 (-13%) realized −$1,257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%241W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$106
14 days−$126
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$706
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -21.6% -29.1% 32% 24% -20.4%
≤30d 277 -13.5% -21.8% 42% 33% -14.4%
≤90d 602 -14.3% -22.5% 40% 31% -16.1%
all 602 -14.3% -22.5% 40% 31% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 31% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 16% -24.1%
15% -36.7% 7% -31.5%
20% -42.9% 3% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses241 / 361
Open positions0
Markets (closed)602 / 602
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 602 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records