Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8783…db0c sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,750 (+34%) realized +$4,084 · open +$666
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days+$5,100
14 days+$4,608
30 days+$4,608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$6,175
other 19% −$699
crypto 1% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -14.4% -22.5% 41% 41% +27.6%
≤30d 39 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 38% +22.7%
≤90d 39 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 38% +22.7%
all 39 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 38% +22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 38% +22.7%
10% -33.5% 38% +11.0%
15% -40.0% 38% +0.3%
20% -45.8% 33% -9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$605 vs −$186 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,666
Realized+$4,084
Unrealized+$666
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage9d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,666 +$666 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 +$3 +52%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,015 +$985 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $102 +$113 +111%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $508 +$534 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $98 −$96 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,518 +$982 +65%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,013 −$910 -90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $304 +$262 +86%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $28 −$17 -61%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $54 −$24 -45%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,550 +250%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,014 +$838 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $508 +$556 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,005 +$1,420 +141%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $499 −$491 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,012 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $7 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $98 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 27h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 6¢ $103 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $1,013 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $1,518 29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $28 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 32h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $304 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $305 32h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $305 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 15¢ $29 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 26¢ $54 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,665.83 · official $1,665.83 (match) · 59 history records